Astros to unveil Happ in opener with Brewers

Baseball Betting Lines

07/30/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Nobody expects new Houston Astros starter J.A. Happ to replace the traded Roy Oswalt, yet that is what the young left-hander must do tonight.

One day after getting dealt to the Astros in a deal that sent Oswalt to the Philadelphia Phillies, Happ will make a quick Houston debut this evening in the opener of a three-game series versus the Milwaukee Brewers at Minute Maid Park.

With Houston 17 games under .500 and 14 games out of first place in the National League Central, the Astros decided to look to the future on Thursday, sending the veteran Oswalt to the Phillies along with cash for Happ and a pair of minor league players. One of those minor leaguers, outfielder Anthony Gose, was then flipped to Toronto for highly-regarded first base prospect Brett Wallace.

"Obviously, I was a little shocked and a little surprised [Thursday], but I'm definitely looking on the positive," Happ told Houston's website. "I hope to be a part of their future and help turn things around there. It's nice to go to a team that wants you. I want to go down there and pitch well and see what happens."

Happ went 12-4 with a 2.93 earned run average in 35 games (23 starts) last year, finishing second in the NL Rookie of the Year voting. He made two April starts before getting sidelined for over three months due to a forearm injury, returning on Sunday to face Colorado. The 27-year-old got a no-decision in his return after allowing three runs on four hits and four walks over five innings, giving him a 1-0 mark and 1.76 ERA on the season.

The left-hander has made just one career start at Minute Maid Park, throwing five scoreless innings of six-hit ball in a victory over the Astros, and is 1-0 with a 6.14 ERA lifetime versus the Brewers.

Oswalt, who waived a no-trade clause to make the deal happen, was scheduled to start tonight for the Astros, but he will instead be pitching with the Phillies. The former All-Star went 143-82 with a 3.24 ERA in 303 games (291 starts) over nine-plus seasons with Houston, leaving one win shy of matching Joe Niekro for the most in club history.

After an off day on Thursday, the Astros resume their nine-game homestand. They have split the first six matchups of the swing, taking two of three over the Cubs earlier in the week.

Houston has won all four of its series this year with Chicago after taking Wednesday's rubber match, 8-1. Carlos Lee had a pair of two-run homers and Bud Norris gave up just one unearned run over six innings.

Third baseman Chris Johnson went 1-for-4 at the plate to extend his hitting streak to 12 games, the longest by a Houston rookie since Julio Lugo's 14-game run in 2000.

Happ failed to catch a break tonight in regards to facing All-Star Milwaukee outfielder Corey Hart, who is expected to play for the first time in six games after missing time due to a sore right thumb and wrist. The slugger is batting .292 with 22 homers and 70 RBI this year.

Minus Hart on Wednesday, the Brewers dropped a rubber match with Cincinnati, 10-2. Ryan Braun and Jonathan Lucroy both drove in a run for Milwaukee, while starter Chris Narveson allowed three runs over five-plus innings to take the loss.

"Narveson pitched five good innings and we had a rested bullpen, so that's why I played it that way," said Brewers manager Ken Macha. "If there's one consistency he's had, it's that he's had one bad inning in a lot of his starts. So that was the thought process, to not let it snowball."

Milwaukee has lost two in a row since a five-game win streak and hope that Manny Parra can earn his first victory since July 3 tonight.

The 27-year-old is 0-2 with an 8.82 ERA in three starts since that win. He was drilled for 10 runs over 5 1/3 innings of a loss to the Braves on July 18, but rebounded in a no-decision against the Nationals on Saturday. Parra allowed just two runs on four hits and three walks over six innings.

Parra is 3-7 with a 5.33 ERA this year and 4-3 with a 5.18 ERA in eight lifetime starts versus Houston. The left-hander got a no-decision against the club on June 28 after yielding four runs on seven hits and four walks over five frames of work.

The Brewers and Astros have split six games so far this year, with each meeting taking place in Milwaukee.

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Sportsbooks to bet on football

Recently I had an email debate with an angry reader who said I did not understand "the science of oddsmaking", as he called it.

He said I was wrong for suggesting oddsmakers care about who wins or loses games.

"Oddsmakers only care about splitting the betting public 50/50 on both sides of the line and keeping the commission (a.k.a. juice)," he wrote.

He might have been right about not understanding "the science of oddsmaking". After all, I'm not an oddsmaker. That said, I stick to my assertion that oddsmakers (a.k.a. sportbooks) often do care about who wins games.

Granted, as a general rule, sportsbooks try to balance their action so that they're not exposed to big losses. However, there are times when this is difficult to pull off, regardless of how much a line has moved. There are also times when that general rule is ignored and a book pursues risk.

Generally speaking, it's safe to say the books in Vegas are risk-adverse. Unlike in the past when the wise guys ruled the town, Vegas is now corporate and the goal of most casinos is to make as much money as possible with as little risk as possible.

Thus, Vegas sportsbooks try everything in their power to balance the action. They're satisfied simply collecting the juice. But these profits are small, especially compared to the take from other casino games, namely slot machines.

Because the profits at Vegas sportsbooks are so small, you could argue that many casinos operate sportsbooks simply as a novelty to keep the tourists happy.

With a growing aversion to risk, it should come as no surprise that Vegas bookmakers have been panicking this NFL season.

Despite huge pointspreads, a disproportionate percentage of bettors are still laying their money on favorites like the Eagles, Colts, Pats and Vikings rather than the dogs (a common trend for the largely recreational bettors that visit Vegas).

And much to the dismay of the books, those favorites are finding ways to cover the thick chalk. In fact, prior to Week 7, the four teams listed above are a combined 16-2-2 (88 percent) against the spread. (The tables turned dramatically in Week 7, but more on that later.)

The result has been an early-season beating for the books, and a bonanza for bettors.

While Vegas increasingly hates risk, it's no longer a major player in the sports betting world. Most of the betting action now takes place offshore where sportsbooks are not as obsessed about balance. In fact, some books encourage exposure to risk because the rewards can be so much bigger.

Consider MySportsbook.com. On its website, the book has odds pages which actually display the amount of action it's getting on games. In other words, you can see how much action the book is taking on both sides of a pointspread, moneyline or over/under.

One look at these numbers and it's obvious MySportsbook.com does not balance every game. In fact, far from it.

Take last weekend's matchup between St. Louis and Miami. By game time on Sunday, 83 percent of the betting action at MySportsbook.com was on the Rams; only 17 percent was on Miami.

What's interesting is that MySportsbook.com opened the pointspread with Miami at +6 1/2. By game time, the spread had lowered to +5.

That goes contrary to the balancing theory. If MySportsbook.com had wanted to balance the action, it would have given Miami more points; instead, it took away 1 1/2. World Series odds are now up as well.

MySportsbook.com exposed itself to even more to risk, and rolled the dice on the underdog Dolphins. Why? I contacted a representative with the book to find out. His answer was simple.

"The line moved early based on 'smart money' from sharp players," said Jeff Gilroy, a spokesperson for the book. "We also knew from early in the week that we would need Miami, therefore (we dropped) the spread to encourage Rams money.

"At the end of the day, we liked the home team."

So the conclusion is this: MySportsbook.com respected the sharp action, and gambled that the sharp bettors had a better take on the game than the recreational bettors, who were hammering the visiting Rams.

In the end, the gamble paid off. Miami, desperate for a win in front of its home fans, pounded the overrated Rams, who are terrible on the road and even worse on grass. Final score: 31-14 Fish.

MySportsbook.com was also heavily exposed on numerous favorites in Week 7, including Philadelphia, Seattle and Denver. All three failed to cover.

The fact that sportsbooks are exposed to risk on certain games is really nothing new. The fact, that Sportsbook.com is willing to show the public where it's exposed is intriguing.

Armed with this type of information, bettors can make more educated wagers. They can get an idea where the sharp money is going and conversely where the public money is headed.

MySportsbook.com is opening up its cashbox, letting bettors look inside and challenging them to take their best shot at grabbing the cash.

To visit this online football betting got to MySportsbook.com for all your football betting odds needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.