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12/29/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - It required a major effort for the Tennessee Titans to salvage their season from the scrap heap of an 0-5 start, and the hard work will continue for Vince Young and his band of AFC Wild Card hopefuls on Sunday.
The 11-4 Patriots will visit LP Field in Week 17, and while a victory over the reigning "team of the decade" would be impressive indeed, it wouldn't be enough to get the Titans into the playoffs in and of itself.
Tennessee, which is bidding to become the first team in NFL history to reach the postseason after losing its first five games, will need the Steelers to win at Cincinnati and the Chiefs to take care of visiting Jacksonville at the same time that the Titans are scoring a victory over the Patriots. If all of that goes according to plan, Jeff Fisher's club would then require the 6-9 49ers to go into Denver and prevail.
Though their playoff odds remain long, the leap that the Titans have made with Young as their quarterback is nothing short of extraordinary. The franchise has followed up a dismal stretch of 9-29 football by winning eight of its last 10, including a current six-game winning streak that represents Tennessee's longest since 2003. The latest heroics for Young, who sports an impressive 8-4 starting record in his rookie year, came in last Sunday's 30-29 win at Buffalo, when he threw for a pair of touchdowns and scored another on a dazzling 36-yard run to daylight near the end of the first half.
New England, meanwhile, sewed up its fifth AFC East title in six years with last week's 24-21 win at Jacksonville, and will be either the No. 3 or No. 4 seed in the upcoming playoffs.
Though a victory over the Titans would improve the Patriots' chances of earning the No. 3 seed, head coach Bill Belichick could choose to rest many of his starters in the interests of playing a potentially more favorable 4-5 matchup with Denver and rookie quarterback Jay Cutler in the first postseason round. A win and an Indianapolis loss to the Dolphins on Sunday would leave New England subject to playing the AFC East rival New York Jets, who defeated the Patriots at Gillette Stadium back in Week 10.
Faced with a similar situation in Week 17 of the 2005 season, Belichick sat a large number of players in a 28-26 home loss to Miami, and managed to avoid a First-Round matchup against sixth-seed and eventual Super Bowl Champion Pittsburgh.
SERIES HISTORY
The Patriots own a 19-15-1 advantage in their all-time regular season series with the Titans, including a 38-30 win in the last such matchup, at Gillette Stadium in 2003. Tennessee won the previous meeting, a 24-7 win at home in 2002. That game marked the Pats' only trip to Tennessee in their history. New England's last road win in the series came at the then-Houston Oilers in 1987.
In addition to the regular season series, the teams have met twice in the postseason. New England was a 17-14 home winner in a 2003 AFC Divisional Playoff that preceded its second of three Super Bowl titles, and also dropped a 31-14 home decision to the Oilers in a 1978 AFC Divisional Playoff.
Belichick is 6-7 all-time against the Titans/Oilers, including 2-1 since coming to New England in 2000. The Titans' Fisher is 1-3 all-time against the Patriots, and is 2-4 head-to-head against Belichick.
PATRIOTS OFFENSE VS. TITANS DEFENSE
Beyond the fact that their playoff participation has already been determined, the Patriots could seek to rest quarterback Tom Brady (3304 passing yards, 23 TD, 12 INT) on Sunday for reasons of recuperation. Brady took a vicious hit from Jacksonville linebacker Clint Ingram last week, and while the three-time Super Bowl winner finished out the win, he hadn't practiced as of Thursday due to what was described as a shoulder injury. Though chances are that Brady (who is listed as probable) will make his 105th consecutive start, it seems likely that backups Matt Cassel and Vinny Testaverde will both see action on Sunday. Cassel's most extensive time as a pro came in a similar situation in Week 17 of last year, when he completed 13-of-24 passes for 183 yards and a couple of touchdowns against Miami, in relief of Brady. The 43-year-old Testaverde has appeared in two games in kneel-down situations this year, but has yet to throw a pass in a New England uniform. The Patriots have 11 different players with a touchdown catch this year, so the players trotted out to catch passes at Tennessee are anybody's guess. Wideout Reche Caldwell (57 receptions, 3 TD) is the team leader in receptions, and tight end Benjamin Watson (49 receptions, 3 TD) is first in receiving yards (643). The New England o-line has allowed a modest 27 sacks on the year.
The Titans are just 26th in the NFL against the pass (223.9 yards per game) as Week 17 begins, and their 24 sacks rank in a tie for 29th in the league, though those numbers don't spell out Tennessee's playmaking abilities against aerial attacks. All four of the Titans' secondary starters - cornerbacks Pacman Jones (60 tackles, 4 INT, 1 sack) and Reynaldo Hill (53 tackles, 2 INT) along with safeties Chris Hope (117 tackles, 5 INT) and Lamont Thompson (63 tackles, 3 INT) - have multiple interceptions in 2006, and both Hill and Hope came up with key picks in the win over Buffalo. Hill effectively ended the game by intercepting J.P. Losman on a 4th-and-5 pass in the closing seconds, while Hope's pick in Buffalo territory set up a Titans field goal. The pass rush has struggled to apply pressure for most of the year, but end Travis LaBoy (31 tackles, 3.5 sacks) had one of three Tennessee sacks of Losman last Sunday. Fellow DE Kyle Vanden Bosch (67 tackles, 5.5 sacks) leads the Titans in sacks, but has not broken through to the quarterback in seven of his last eight games.
Since all of the running backs currently on the New England roster serve a vital purpose within the team's offense, Belichick won't be able to offer up a sacrificial lamb as a rusher in a game with low stakes. Complicating matters is the fact that the player who would most accurately fit the description of a backup, third-down ace Kevin Faulk (123 rushing yards, 43 receptions, 3 TD), is listed as questionable with a knee problem. That means veteran Corey Dillon (745 rushing yards, 11 TD) and rookie Laurence Maroney (672 rushing yards, 20 receptions, 6 TD) are likely to see significant carries, with fullback Heath Evans (103 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 1 TD) paving the way and receiving an occasional touch. Maroney and Dillon combined for 78 yards on 17 carries against the Jaguars last Sunday, and both scored touchdowns in the win. The Patriots are 12th in NFL rushing offense (119.9 yards per game).
Whoever does the running for the Patriots should be able to accrue some mileage against a Tennessee defense that is just 28th in the league against the run (142.8 yards per game) as the week begins. Bills running backs Willis McGahee and Anthony Thomas combined for 102 yards on 23 carries last week, despite the best efforts of linebackers Keith Bulluck (135 tackles, 2.5 sacks, 1 INT), Peter Sirmon (82 tackles, 1 INT), and David Thornton (102 tackles). Bulluck had a team-high eight tackles in the win, while Sirmon and Bulluck combined for 12 stops. Tackles Albert Haynesworth (27 tackles, 2 sacks) and Randy Starks (37 tackles, 3 sacks) posted two stops each in Buffalo, and both players were credited with one sack.
TITANS OFFENSE VS. PATRIOTS DEFENSE
Young (1972 passing yards, 12 TD, 11 INT, 523 rushing yards, 6 TD) is arguably the No. 1 candidate for league Rookie of the Year honors, with his eight wins as a starter ranking in the all-time top five for rookies. Last week, Young became the first rookie quarterback in NFL history to reach 500 rushing yards, and also cemented himself as the first player in league annals with three rushing touchdowns of 20 yards or longer and three touchdown passes of 20 yards or longer in his rookie season. In addition to his long touchdown run against the Bills, Young threw TD passes of 22 and 29 yards to wideouts Bobby Wade (29 receptions, 2 TD) and Brandon Jones (26 receptions, 4 TD), respectively. Jones finished with five catches for 101 yards and the score, the first 100-yard game of his two-year NFL career. Wade is listed as questionable for this week with an ankle problem, as is tight end Bo Scaife (29 receptions, 2 TD). Drew Bennett leads Tennessee in catches (42) and receiving yards (662), but did not have a grab versus Buffalo. A young Titans line has surrendered only 24 sacks all year.
Young could have some trouble making big plays with his arm against a New England defense that has surrendered an NFL-low 10 touchdown passes all year. The Patriots' aerial defense is solid all around, with the pass rush placing pressure on quarterbacks to the tune of 39 sacks (tied for seventh in the league), and the team notching 20 interceptions to keep teams honest on the back end (fifth overall). The Patriots had just one sack of the Jaguars' David Garrard last week, but it was a timely one by Jarvis Green (31 tackles, 6.5 sacks) that resulted in a lost fumble on Jacksonville's ill-fated final drive. Green is now one sack behind outside linebacker Roosevelt Colvin (49 tackles, 7.5 sacks) for the team lead in that category. The secondary did not have an interception, but did get some good news in the form of strong safety Rodney Harrison's return the fold. Harrison (47 tackles, 1 sack, 1 INT) had been sidelined six games due to a fractured scapula, and posted three tackles and a fumble recovery in his return. Cornerback Asante Samuel (62 tackles, 8 INT) enters Week 17 one interception behind Denver's Champ Bailey for the NFL lead in that department.
Titans running back Travis Henry (1109 rushing yards, 7 TD, 17 receptions) had something to prove in his return to Buffalo last week, and the former Bill made his old team pay to the tune of 135 yards on 25 carries in the Tennessee victory. The game marked Henry's first 100-yard outing since Week 11 in Philadelphia. The University of Tennessee product is listed as questionable for this week with an ankle injury, but is expected to play. With 57 yards this week, he will have put together the most productive season for a Titans running back since Eddie George went over 1,500 yards in the 2000 campaign. Rookie LenDale White (240 rushing yards, 14 receptions) spelled Henry with 33 yards on nine total touches in Buffalo. The Titans are fifth in the league in rushing offense (138.6 yards per game).
Both Henry and Young figure to have their work cut out for them against a New England defense that ranks fifth in the league against the run (91.5 yards per game) and has surrendered only three rushes of 20 yards or longer the entire season. The good news on that front is the fact that the Jaguars' Maurice Jones-Drew gutted New England for 131 yards and two touchdowns on 19 carries a week ago, including a 74-yard touchdown run in the second quarter that staked Jacksonville to a 7-3 lead. Inside linebackers Tedy Bruschi (105 tackles, 1.5 sacks, 1 INT) and Mike Vrabel (86 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 3 INT) were quiet in the win, combining for just six tackles. The three-man-line of nose tackle Michael Wright (23 tackles, 1 sack) and ends Richard Seymour (37 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 INT) and Ty Warren (77 tackles, 6.5 sacks) also did little of note in the victory. Wright was making his second straight start in place of the injured Vince Wilfork (50 tackles, 1 sack), who is questionable for Sunday due to an ankle injury.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
Belichick and Brady have both indicated that the Patriots are going to Tennessee to win, though what that means exactly is anyone's guess. Are they going to take four knees at the Titans 5-yard line in the second quarter? Of course not, but that doesn't mean the likes of Brady, Maroney, Dillon, Seymour, Bruschi, and Harrison are going to be seen or heard from in the second half. Worrying about who New England is going to play of course demeans Tennessee, which is playing well enough at the moment to go toe-to-toe with a Patriots team at full strength. But don't figure on the Titans having to contend with that scenario, since there is precedent to suggest that Belichick is going to utilize his starters cautiously in a game that isn't strictly necessary for the Patriots to win.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Titans 23, Patriots 14
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Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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